Condé has always been one to make a lot of noise. Civil war fears in Guinea. I, therefore, fear that the use of force will be much more accentuated than in March when five churches were set on fire and more than 120 people were killed. It is simply a matter of creating the conditions to attract those people. Condé, Guinea’s first democratically elected president, survived an assassination attempt in 2011. In addition to Condé’s rising authoritarianism, Guinea remains caught in the vicious cycle of bad governance and poverty despite its mineral wealth, making it “a trapped country”. The main indigenous revolutionary insurgent movement, the Marxist African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde or PAIGC was well-trained, well-led, and equipped and received substantial support from safe havens in neighbouring countries like Senegal and Guinea-Conakry. With the support of 1,300 Senegalese and 400 Guinean soldiers, troops loyal to the go… What’s happening in Guinea is one example of the fury and uncertainty that can follow a disputed election, particularly if an incumbent refuses to step down when their time is up. What makes electoral protests more likely to result in pro-democratic outcomes, like the exit of an autocrat, rather than entrenched dictatorship? Sign up for our newsletter. However, the most serious problem is the division of our society. Ansumane Mane. Human rights analyst Linda Ghirardello of Eurac Research Bozen-Bolzano, Italy, spoke with Abdulaye Sadio Barry, a Germany-based exiled Guinean leader of the new-generation opposition party Block for Alternation in Guinea (BAG). Erica Chenoweth adds that protests engaging at least 3.5 percent of a country’s population have never failed to bring about meaningful change, including and especially nonviolent protests. He has also recently tweeted in support of other African protests, including the #EndSARS movement in Nigeria. Sands Nowhere in the modern world has an armed liberation struggle persisted for so long - nearly 30 years - and with such secrecy, as the West Papuan war of resistance against the military government of Indonesia. DATES OF CONFLICT: BEGAN: June 7 1998--Army rebellion begins. Cellou Dalein, leader of the opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UDFG), believes he can beat Condé. In 2008, a junta seized power after the death of longtime dictator Lansana Conté. Do you believe the scale of violence will increase? Let’s talk about future perspectives for Guinea: what does the country need and what will be the major challenges? Condé’s support base is primarily Malinke and Soussou. Here’s what you need to know. The Guinea-Bissau Civil War engulfed the west-African country of Guinea-Bissau between June 7th, 1998 and May 10th, 1999. Moreover, he no longer has any political allies in the West African region except the Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara, who also aspires to a third illegitimate term as well. ENDED: November 2, 1998 --Peace accord signed. Will Guinea slide into chaos? Bougainville Revolutionary Army leader Francis Ona, barefoot and wearing a bush hat, in 1994 during the decade-long civil war in the archipelago. Emily Beaulieu finds that electoral protests place greater pressure on incumbents to implement democratic reforms when those protests receive international attention, even if that attention falls short of outright support. Then, in total absence of law, equity, and justice, other communities take up arms in defense of their interests. In early 2003, a second rebel group, the Movement for Democracy in Liberia, emerged in the south, and by June–July 2003, Charles Taylor's government controlled only a third of the country. Tournons la Page (“Let’s Turn the Page”) is a Pan-African activist group dedicated to strengthening democracy. Up until now, Guinea has remarkably avoided the scale of civil war and ethnic strife that has in the past beleaguered its neighbors Côte d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Liberia and Mali. The small West African country of Guinea succumbs to chaos: post-electoral violence has erupted after President Alpha Condé’s reelection on October 18, 2020. An Internet blackout and eyewitness reports of government security forces attacking civilians suggest that Condé is willing to go to extreme lengths to remain in power. The Guinea-Bissau Civil War was fought from 7 June 1998 to 10 May 1999 and was triggered by an attempted coup d'état against the government of President João Bernardo Vieira led by Brigadier-General Ansumane Mané. Nevertheless, between 1822 and the American Civil War, some 15,000 African Americans settled in Liberia. We need a consensual constitution not tailored for one person or community, but based on human rights. The country accused France of establishing camps and arms caches along Guinea’s borders with Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. Over the past two weeks, at least several dozen Guineans have died in clashes between protesters and security forces, following President Alpha Condé’s Oct. 18 reelection. From your perspective, how will the opposition react? There is a strong risk that violent groups will emerge in Guinea, as people feel that no one is defending them: neither the State, nor justice, nor the international community. These parties are therefore based on their families, on their communities and villages, and keeping up a very strong communitarian ideology. By signing up you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, Interpretation of the news based on evidence, including data, as well as anticipating how events might unfold based on past events. In my opinion, the Europeans could prevent our country from sliding into a civil war through diplomatic and economic pressure. Vs. Rebel Army troops led by former Army Commander. When the two met at a summit in October, Condé refused to shake Issoufou’s hand. This is their main problem, making them unable to overcome personal interests. If he upholds that promise, he will be only the second executive in Niger to peacefully transfer power to a successor. The case of Guinea should be of concern to everyone. In the opposition’s eyes, everything is being done on an illegal basis through the corrupt mechanism Condé has set up in all national institutions. What I observe is that the youth are demonstrating against Condé even in his own region. Among its visitors during the Civil War was Union General U. S. Grant, who passed through during his 1864 campaign and spoke with Mrs. Chandler about Jackson's death. People flooded the streets last week and the opposition declared the results fraudulent after Guinea’s electoral commission announced that Condé had won 59 percent of the vote. Issoufou, on his part, has vowed not to contest his country’s December election, having served his maximum of two terms. The country is in disastrous conditions in terms of infrastructure; roads and electricity are especially lacking. As the army executed 157 people and publicly raped over a hundred women, the newly elected Condé proclaimed reforms to regulate the army. ). Presidents who reach their term limits step down only about half the time without trying to change the constitution — those who attempt to stay in power nearly always succeed, despite public outcry. The Second Liberian Civil War began in 1999 when a rebel group backed by the government of neighbouring Guinea, the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy, emerged in northern Liberia. Unfortunately, the signs are ominous for Guinea, as people’s frustrations seem to have reached explosive potential. Defying Dictatorships: An Interview with Garry Kasparov, On Atlantic Alliances and Autocrats: An Interview with Jeanne Shaheen, Bitter-Tasting Sugar: the United States, Haiti and Racism in Dominican Bateyes. Guinea’s speaker, Cipriano Cassama who had been elected by parliament as president resigned from office on Sunday, citing the risk of civil war and danger for his family. Guinea, thus, contributed to populating its neighboring countries through its forced diaspora. The resistance of the opposition will inevitably lead to a confrontation between the population and the army. Diallo would be Guinea’s first president from the country’s largest ethnic group, the Peul. If Guinea is destabilized, it will push the youth and the poor to embark on the path of exile. 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